Prediction Markets

What is Wisdom of Crowds?

The idea that many independent judgments, aggregated in a market price, can estimate outcomes well.

40 guesses → one close estimate

Finish the sentencePrompthaus

Wisdom of crowds suggests…

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In real work

Use wisdom of crowds carefully: thin books and herd trades can still produce wrong prices.

In the illustration

Each dial points somewhere different; the master needle averages them near the true mark.

Use it in a prompt

Test the wisdom of crowds in your market app: compare the closing price of the last twenty resolved markets to what happened, and show where the crowd was wrong.

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